EXPERIMENTAL — UNCALIBRATEDProbability outputs have not been validated against any resolved outcome. Treat as structured scenario reasoning, not as forecasts. See audit →
FOR ANALYTIC PURPOSES · UNCLASSIFIED MODEL OUTPUT
The Read
2026 IRAN CONFLICT MONITOR
Structured Scenario Analysis · Daily 0700 ET
§ 01 — Bottom Line
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Regime fracture · 60d
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Median regime survival
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Top historical analog
§ 02 — Analytic Judgment
§ 03 — Operational Indicators
§ 04 — Indicators & Warnings
§ 05 — Tail Risks (Underweighted)
§ 06 — Annex
A. Model vs market — hypothetical asymmetric scenarios (NOT investment advice — no backtested edge)
These are hypothetical asymmetric-payoff scenarios surfaced by the model when its probabilities diverge from market signals. The model has no validated track record against resolved outcomes. Treat as scenario reasoning, not as actionable trades.
Each chart below is one of the inputs the model reads daily. They are presented as evidence for the bottom-line judgment above — not as a dashboard to query.
Daily attack tempo · missiles + drones
Brent crude · the world’s read on the conflict
Strait of Hormuz · vessels per day
Pressure index · five forces
§ 08 — Diplomatic Track
What the negotiators are doing
The active mediator chain runs through Pakistan, Russia, and Oman. Below: the most recent positions from each side, in their own words where possible.
§ 09 — Event Log
Day by day
The raw daily record. Newest first. Click a row to expand the full assessment.
Date
Strikes
Headline
Assessment
§ 10 — Business Impact (Annex)
Operating exposure
Two operating businesses with material exposure to the conflict.
This dashboard predicts how the 2026 Iran war is most likely to end by analyzing military data (daily missile/drone launches, stockpile estimates, aircraft losses), economic signals (oil prices, Hormuz shipping traffic, gas prices), political indicators (US approval ratings, casualty counts, coalition support), and diplomatic activity (mediator meetings, proposals, ceasefire rejections). The core engine models war ending as three conditions that must align simultaneously: a viable deal must exist, the US must decide to take it, and Iran must accept it. The resolution probability is calibrated against prediction markets and historical conflict base rates. Updated daily at 7am ET.
How this dashboard works
This dashboard tracks the 2-week ceasefire (Apr 7–21) and predicts whether it holds, extends, leads to a permanent deal, or collapses back to war. It analyzes violation reports, negotiation progress (Islamabad peace talks), economic recovery (Hormuz reopening, oil normalization), and political signals from both sides. The ceasefire engine models stability as a function of mediator engagement, diplomatic signals, Hormuz progress, proxy escalation, and violation severity. Calibrated against prediction markets and historical ceasefire survival rates. Switch to War Mode to see the full conflict analysis.
Ceasefire status
Probability ceasefire holds through Apr 21
Stability factors:
Ceasefire holds when:
What happens after Apr 21?
Ceasefire countdown
Ceasefire Day of 14
Post-ceasefire scenarios
What happens after Apr 21?
Extend—
Permanent deal—
Hold without progress—
Collapse back to war—
Ceasefire violation tracker
Incidents, severity, and attribution since Apr 7.
Islamabad peace talks tracker
VP Vance delegation progress and next steps.
Hormuz reopening progress
Vessels per day recovering toward 135 pre-war baseline.
Oil normalization
War premium unwinding. Pre-war baseline: $65 Brent.
War outcome forecast
Probability of resolution within 3 weeks
For the war to end, all three must be true:
What happens next? Most likely outcomes:
How we arrive at this estimate:
What-if scenarios
Scenario simulator
Toggle a scenario to see how it changes the resolution probability and oil price.
Key trends
Estimate history
What would change things?
Capability thesis
Depleted or Rationing?
Two models of Iran's launch tempo — each implies a different war outcome. Dashed lines = 14-day forecast.
Stockpile burn rate
How long can Iran sustain fire?
Fired to date:
Pressure factors over time
Five key pressures driving the war toward resolution, each scored 0-10. Higher = more pressure.
April 7 deadline
If deal
If no deal
Escalation status
Escalation ladder
Situation Report
Daily ballistic missile launches
Daily counts, not cumulative. Trend line included.
Daily drone launches
Daily counts, not cumulative.
Combined launch tempo
Missiles and drones together — converging or diverging?
Cumulative strikes
Running total since Day 1.
Oil price vs conflict intensity
Dual axis: markets responding to military tempo or diplomatic signals?
Oil price scenario bands
Where oil goes depends on which outcome.
Hormuz Strait transit rate
Vessels per day through Hormuz — the most consequential economic metric of the war.
Oil: Brent vs WTI
Both benchmarks tracking together. Spread = Hormuz premium.
Missile strikes by target
Latest daily slice.
Drone strikes by target
Theater narrowing or spreading?
Cumulative strikes by country
Total missiles + drones received per country since Day 1.
Diplomacy & negotiations
Peace proposals, intermediaries, and positions.
Key actors & alliances
Who's involved and their roles.
War support index
US-led coalition cohesion — tracking ally defections and support erosion.
Iran command decapitation tracker
Is Iran's command structure degrading or regenerating?
Hormuz Strait & safe passage
Blockade status, mine fields, and transit frameworks.
Public opinion
US polling and international reaction.
Iranfarhang
Persian book supply chain — Tehran HQ to 40+ academic institutions worldwide